ARVEX Reg Channel
ARVEX Reg Channel v2.0 is an adaptive regression-channel engine that wraps price in a dynamic “directional shell” and turns simple trend channels into a full context system: live trend channel, HTF ghost channel, breakout zones and confidence scoring.
It doesn’t tell you when to trade – it tells you where the trend is, where it’s likely to continue, and where you should pay attention.
1. Adaptive Regression Channel
The core of the tool is a rolling linear regression channel:
- Midline = regression of price over a user-defined lookback
- Outer bands = standard deviation multiples of residuals
- Inner bands = inner half of the deviation envelope
This creates a statistically grounded trend tunnel that updates each bar, showing:
- Trend direction via channel slope
- Expected “normal” price territory (inner bands)
- Extremes / overshoot zones (outer bands)
2. HTF Ghost Channel (Multi-Timeframe Context)
Optionally, Reg Channel v2 overlays a higher-timeframe ghost channel:
- Drawn from a higher timeframe regression (e.g. 4H on a 1H chart)
- Plotted as a subtle gray channel behind the main shell
- Helps you see whether the current trend is moving with or against the HTF structure
You instantly see when intraday price is grinding inside a larger HTF channel or breaking away from it.
3. Break & Retest Engine
The tool watches how price behaves around the outer channel rails:
Break Conditions
A break is only accepted when:
- Price closes beyond the outer band (up or down)
- The break bar has enough range (ATR-based impulse filter)
This avoids weak pierces and random overextensions.
Retest Window
After a valid break, Reg Channel v2 opens a retest window:
- For an upside break: looks for price coming back into the upper rail
- For a downside break: looks for price retesting the lower rail
- Only within a limited number of bars (time-boxed opportunity)
The combination “break + meaningful retest” defines a potential continuation zone, not a mechanical entry.
4. Breakout Zones (Directional Shell)
When a qualifying break occurs, the indicator creates projected breakout zones:
- Drawn as colored boxes extending from the break bar into the future
- Height is ATR-based (zoneAtr) → adapts to volatility
- Up-breaks create teal zones, down-breaks magenta zones
- Number of active zones is capped and older ones gradually fade
These zones form a directional shell around price, highlighting areas where continuation or liquidity interaction is most likely.
5. Context Score & States
All information is condensed into a 0–100 context score, built from:
- Trend strength – normalized EMA slope vs ATR
- Freshness of the break – how recently the break occurred
- Retest confirmation – whether a proper retest has already happened
This score drives three intuitive states:
- Attention – fresh break, no retest yet
- Setup ready – retest present, score below high-conviction band
- High conviction – retest + strong trend + high score
6. Compact HUD Panel
A minimal HUD in the lower right summarizes everything:
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Channel:
- Up break / Down break / None
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Confidence | State:
- Percentage score
- State text in full mode (Attention / Setup ready / High conviction / Neutral)
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Color coding matches direction (teal for up, magenta for down) and conviction level.
7. Visual Language
On the chart you see:
- Teal / magenta outer rails → active regression channel
- Inner rails + shaded fill → “normal” price path
- Dashed projected channel → forward shell of the current trend
- Gray ghost channel → HTF structure
- Colored breakout boxes → current and past directional shells
- Small triangles on break bars → visual anchor of each break
Everything is context, not a black-box signal.
8. Alerts
Non-repainting, close-of-bar alerts:
- High-conviction context – trend + break + retest aligned
- Setup window opened – retest but not yet high-conviction
- Confidence spike – fresh break without retest (attention only)
9. Best Use Cases
ARVEX Reg Channel v2 is designed to:
- Define trend channels with statistical precision
- Spot true breaks out of a mature channel
- Highlight retest-based continuation zones
- Align intraday bias with higher-timeframe structure
- Provide a confidence score instead of a binary “signal”
It’s a directional shell for traders who already have an entry method and want a smarter structural context around it.